2020 Election Results

The 2020 election was held on Tuesday, November 3.  Biden received 51.31% of the popular vote which is the highest percentage since the 2008 election when Obama received 52.93% of the vote.  Trump received 46.86% of the popular vote which is up slightly from the 46.09% he received in 2016, but still lower than the 47.2% of the vote that Romney had in 2012.  Biden had 81,268,757 votes which is the highest amount ever received and Trump had 74,216,722 votes which is the second highest amount ever received.  Trump lost Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin by a combined total of 42,918 votes.  If those states had gone for Trump, then the Electoral College would have tied at 269-269 and the House of Representatives would have had to pick the next President, with each State getting 1 vote.  

In total there were 158,383,800 votes, which is the highest amount ever.  Trump received 232 Electoral votes which is the highest amount for a losing candidate since the 2004 election when John Kerry had 251 Electoral votes.  Biden had 306 Electoral votes which is more than Trump had in 2016, but less than Obama had in 2012.  Both Trump and Biden won 25 states which is the worst result for the winning candidate and the best result of the losing candidate since the 1976 election.  Carter became President after only winning 23 states, and Ford lost even though he won 27 states.  2020 is the first election since having 50 states where both candidates won an equal number of states.  The last time the candidates tied in states won was in the 1880 election between Garfield and Hancock.  Colorado became the 38th state in 1876 and each candidate won 19 states.

Collectively, third-party and independent candidates earned 1.83% of the popular vote, which is lower than the 2016 election but higher than the 2012 election.  Alaska was the best state for third party and independent candidates where they accounted for 4.4% of the vote, with Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen receiving 2.47% of the vote.  The worst state for alternative candidates was Florida where they only accounted for 0.92% of the vote.  The share of the vote from third party or independent candidate was high enough in these 4 states that it could have changed the outcome: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

Donald Trump’s best state was Wyoming with 69.94% of the vote and his worst state was Vermont with 30.67%.  Joe Biden’s best state was Vermont with 66.09% of the vote and his worst state was Wyoming with 26.55%.  Jo Jorgensen’s best state was South Dakota with 2.63% and her worst state was Mississippi with 0.61%.  Howie Hawkins's best state was Maine with 1% of the vote, and of the 36 states reporting results his worst state was Georgia with 0.02%.  Nevada has an option on the ballot for "None of These Candidates" and it accounted for 1% of the vote.

Biden won the popular vote by 4.45% which is the largest victory since the 2008 election when Obama defeated McCain by 7.28%.  The IBD/TIPP poll that ran from October 29 through November 2 had Biden winning by between 4% and 5%.  Biden won the popular vote by 7,052,035 votes, which is the highest amount since the 2008 election when Obama defeated McCain by 9,550,193 votes.  Biden won California by 5,103,821 votes, New York by 1,986,187 votes, Massachusetts by 1,215,000 votes, Illinois by 1,025,024 votes, and Maryland by 1,008,609 votes.

Biden received 42.77% of the vote in Alaska which is the highest amount for a Democrat since the 1964 election when Lyndon Johnson received 65.91% of the vote.  The margin of victory in the state of 10.06% by Trump is the lowest amount since the 1992 election when Bush beat Clinton by 9.17%.

Biden received 49.36% of the vote in Arizona which is the highest amount for a Democrat since the 1964 election when Lyndon Johnson received 49.45% of the vote and still lost.  Biden's margin of victory of 0.3% marks the closest election since Arizona became a state in 1912.

In Arkansas, Trump received 62.4% of the vote which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1972 election when Richard Nixon received 68.82% of the vote.  Trump's margin of victory of 27.62% is the highest amount since the 1976 election when Carter defeated Ford by 30.01%.

In California, Biden received 63.48% of the vote which is the highest share for a Democrat since the 1936 election when Franklin D. Roosevelt received 66.95% of the vote.

Trump received 41.9% of the vote in Colorado which is the lowest share for a Republican since the 1992 election when George H.W. Bush only received 35.87% of the vote.  Biden received 55.4% of the vote in Colorado which is the highest share for a Democrat since the 1964 election when Lyndon Johnson received 61.27% of the vote.  Biden's margin of victory by 13.5% is the highest amount since the 1984 election when Reagan defeated Mondale by 28.32% of the vote.

Biden's margin of victory of 86.75% in the District of Columbia is the highest amount since the District of Columbia gained electoral votes in 1964.  The Twenty-third Amendment to the United States Constitution was ratified in 1961.  Article One of the United States Constitution had originally limited electors to the states.  Since the passage of the Twenty-third Amendment, all but one of the district's electoral votes have been cast for the Democratic Party's presidential candidates; in 2000 one elector abstained from voting leaving Al Gore with just 2 votes.  The Twenty-third Amendment did not grant the district voting rights in Congress, nor did it give the district the right to participate in the process that allows the Constitution to be amended, nor did it grant the district home rule. An unsuccessful proposed constitutional amendment to do this failed in 1978. Many citizens of the district favor statehood or further constitutional amendments to address these issues.

Trump received 49.24% of the vote in Georgia which is the lowest amount for a Republican since the 1996 election when Bob Dole received 47.01% of the vote.  Biden received 49.47% of the vote which is the highest amount for a Democrat since the 1980 election when Jimmy Carter received 55.76% of the vote.  Biden's margin of victory of 0.23% is the closest amount ever.  Georgia was the 4th state to be admitted in 1788, but the popular vote was not counted before the 1828 election and in the 1832 election Andrew Jackson received 100% of the vote.

Trump received 53.09% of the vote in Iowa which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1984 election when Ronald Reagan received 53.27% of the vote.

Trump received 56.21% of the vote in Kansas which is the lowest amount for a Republican since the 1996 election when Bob Dole received 54.29% of the vote.  Trump's margin of victory of 14.65% is the lowest amount since the 1992 election when Bush beat Clinton by 5.14%.

Trump received 32.15% of the vote in Maryland which is the lowest amount for a Republican since the 1912 election when William H. Taft received 23.69% of the vote.  Biden received 65.36% of the vote which is the highest amount for a Democrat since the 1964 election when Lyndon Johnson received 65.47% of the vote.  Biden's margin of victory of 33.21% is the highest amount since the 1868 election when Horatio Seymour beat Ulysses Grant by 34.4%.

Biden received 65.6% of the vote in Massachusetts which is the highest amount for a Democrat since the 1964 election when Lyndon Johnson received 76.19%.  Trump received 32.14% of the vote which is the lowest amount for a Republican since the 1996 election when Bob Dole received 28.09% of the vote.  Biden's margin of victory of 33.46% is the highest amount since the 1964 election when Johnson defeated Goldwater by 52.75%.

Trump received 47.84% of the vote in Michigan which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1988 election when George Bush received 53.57%.

Trump received 56.8% of the vote in Missouri which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1984 election when Ronald Reagan received 60.02% of the vote.

Biden's margin of victory in Nevada by 2.39% is the closest amount since the 1996 election when Clinton defeated Dole by 1.02%.

Trump received 65.11% of the vote in North Dakota which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1952 election when Dwight Eisenhower received 70.97% of the vote.

Trump received 53.27% of the vote in Ohio which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1988 election when George H.W. Bush received 55% of the vote.

Trump received 48.84% of the vote in Pennsylvania which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1988 election when George H.W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote.

Trump received 61.77% of the vote in South Dakota which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1984 election when Ronald Reagan received 63% of the vote.

Trump received 52.06% of the vote in Texas which is the lowest amount for a Republican since the 1996 election when Bob Dole received 48.76% of the vote.  Biden received 46.48% of the vote which is the highest amount for a Democrat since the 1976 election when Jimmy Carter had 51.14%.  Trump's margin of victory by 5.58% is the closest since the 1996 election when Dole beat Clinton by 4.93%.

Biden received 37.65% of the vote in Utah when is the highest amount for a Democrat since the 1964 election when Lyndon Johnson had 54.86%.

Biden received 54.11% of the vote in Virginia which is the highest amount for a Democrat since the 1944 election when Franklin Roosevelt had 62.36%.  Trump received 44% of the vote which is the lowest amount for a Republican since the 1968 election when Richard Nixon had 43.36%.  Biden's margin of victory by 10.11% is the highest amount since the 1988 election when Bush beat Dukakis by 20.51%.

Biden received 57.97% of the vote in Washington state which is the highest amount for a Democrat since the 1964 election when Lyndon Johnson received 61.97%.  Biden's margin of victory by 19.2% is the highest amount since that same 1964 election when Johnson defeated Goldwater by 24.6%.

Trump received 68.62% of the vote in West Virginia which is the highest amount ever for a Republican.

Trump received 69.94% of the vote in Wyoming which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1984 election when Ronald Reagan had 70.51%.

Trump became the first president since George Bush in 1992 and the eleventh incumbent president in the country's history to lose a bid for a second term. Biden's 51.3% was also the largest percentage of the popular vote won by any challenger to an incumbent president since 1932.  The election saw the highest voter turnout since 1900.

Biden secured the Democratic nomination over his closest rival, Senator Bernie Sanders, in a competitive primary that featured the largest field of candidates for any political party in the modern era of American politics. Biden's running mate, Senator Harris from California, was the first Caribbean-American, first Asian-American, and third female vice-presidential nominee on a major party ticket.  Biden is the oldest elected president (age 77 on Election Day), the first from Delaware, and the second Catholic.

The election saw a record number of ballots cast early and by mail due to the ongoing pandemic.  As a result of the large number of mail-in ballots, some swing states saw delays in vote counting and reporting; this led to major news outlets delaying their projection of Biden and Harris as the winners until the morning of November 7, three and a half days after the election.

Attorney General William Barr and officials in each of the 50 states found no evidence of widespread fraud or irregularities in the election.  Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was the most secure in American history.  If those two claims are true, then the Trump administration should receive credit as the best ever for election integrity, and if Russia really helped Trump to win in 2016 then the Obama administration should be considered the worst ever for election integrity.

On January 7, 2021, one day after the violent storming of the Capitol and two months after Biden's victory was declared, Trump acknowledged the incoming administration without mentioning Biden's name in a video posted to Twitter.  "A new administration will be inaugurated on January 20," Trump said in the video, which was taped at the White House. "My focus now turns to ensuring a smooth, orderly and seamless transition of power."

The election results in each state and the District of Columbia were certified by December 9.  The presidential electors formally cast their votes for president and vice president on December 14, and their votes were officially counted by Congress on January 6–7, 2021, before and after the attack on the Capitol.

The Libertarian Party nominates its vice-presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the presidential nominee's preference.  Jo Jorgensen, who was the running mate of author Harry Browne in 1996, received the Libertarian nomination at the national convention on May 23, 2020.  She achieved ballot access in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

The Maine Legislature passed a bill in August 2019 adopting ranked-choice voting (RCV) both for presidential primaries and for the general election.  Governor Janet Mills allowed the bill to become law without her signature, which delayed it from taking effect until after the 2020 Democratic primary in March, but made Maine the first state to use RCV for a presidential general election. The Maine Republican Party filed signatures for a veto referendum to preclude the use of RCV for the 2020 election, but Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap found there were insufficient valid signatures to qualify for the ballot. A challenge in Maine Superior Court was successful for the Maine Republican Party, but the Maine Supreme Judicial Court stayed the ruling pending appeal on September 8, 2020.  Nevertheless, ballots began being printed later that day without the veto referendum and including RCV for the presidential election, and the Court ruled in favor of the Secretary of State on September 22, allowing RCV to be used.  An emergency appeal to the Supreme Court was denied on October 6.  Implementation of RCV could potentially delay the projection of the winner(s) of Maine's electoral votes for days after election day and may complicate interpretation of the national popular vote.  The law continues the use of the congressional district method for the allocation of Maine's electors.  Nebraska is the only other state that apportions its electoral votes this way.

In April 2020, Biden suggested that Trump would try to delay the election, saying that Trump "is gonna try to kick back the election somehow, come up with some rationale why it can't be held".  On Election Day a judge ordered mail inspectors to search "mail facilities in...key battleground states" for ballots.  USPS refused to comply with the order and nearly 7% of ballots in mail facilities on Election Day were not processed in time.  The Federal Election Commission, which was created in 1974 to enforce campaign finance laws in federal elections, has not functioned since July 2020 due to vacancies in membership. In the absence of a quorum, the commission cannot vote on complaints or give guidance through advisory opinions.  As of May 19, 2020, there were 350 outstanding matters on the agency's enforcement docket and 227 items waiting for action.  

President Trump, Vice President Pence, and several Republican members of Congress stated that a full Supreme Court bench was needed to decide the upcoming election.   On October 26, Amy Barrett was confirmed on a party-line vote of 52–48, with no Democrats voting for her confirmation.  This was the closest Supreme Court confirmation ever to a presidential election, and the first Supreme Court nomination since 1869 with no supporting votes from the minority party.  By September 2020, several hundred legal cases relating to the election had been filed.  About 250 of these had to do with the mechanics of voting in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic.  The Supreme Court ruled on a number of these cases, primarily issuing emergency stays instead of going through the normal process due to the urgency.  In October 2020, there was speculation that the election might be decided through a Supreme Court case, as happened following the 2000 election.  

On October 11, 2019, the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) announced that three general election debates would be held in the fall of 2020.  CPD announced on October 8, 2020 that the debate would be held virtually, in which the candidates would appear from separate locations. However, Trump refused to participate in a virtual debate, and the commission subsequently announced that the debate had been cancelled.  The Free & Equal Elections Foundation held two debates with various third party and independent candidates, one on October 8, 2020, in Denver, Colorado, and another on October 24, 2020, in Cheyenne, Wyoming.  

Trump claimed credit for the consistent economic expansion of his presidency's first three years, with the stock market at its longest growth period in history, and unemployment at a fifty-year low. Additionally, he has touted the 2020 third quarter rebound, in which GDP grew at an annualized rate of 33.1%, as evidence of the success of his economic policies.  Biden tried to give the Obama administration credit for the strong economy.  The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which lowered income tax for most Americans, as well as lowering the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, was an important part of Trump's economic policy.  Trump said Biden's plans will destroy retirement accounts and the stock market.  

In a White House speech in 2019, Trump hailed "America’s environmental leadership" under his watch, asserting his administration was "being good stewards of our public land," reducing carbon emissions and promoting the "cleanest air" and "crystal clean" water.  Experts tried to give credit to previous administrations all the way back to Nixon.  According to the US Energy Information Administration, US CO2 emissions in 2019 were the lowest they have been since 1992. Per capita emissions were lower in 2019 than they’ve been at any time since at least 1950.  The IEA said 2019’s reduction was mainly a result of coal being replaced by cleaner-burning fossil gas.  They also claimed that 2019 had a mild summer and winter, even though NASA and NOAA both say it was the 2nd hottest year on record.  Commenting on 2019 and 2020’s figures, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol recently said to Reuters: “Two years in a row the largest reductions in global emissions came from the US. If we like it or not these are the numbers. Of course, can the US do more? Definitely. Can the US be a leader of the global energy transition? Definitely. So therefore, the US politics will matter more.”  The US reductions were the largest in the world in absolute terms rather than as a percentage change.  

More than 100 million ballots were cast before Election Day by early voting or mail ballot, due to the ongoing pandemic.  It was the ninth consecutive presidential election where the victorious candidate did not win the popular vote by a double-digit margin, continuing the longest series of such presidential elections in U.S. history that began in 1988.

Biden became the second former vice president, after Republican Richard Nixon in 1968, to be elected to a first term as president, and the first Democrat to do so.  Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidential election in Georgia since 1992 and in Arizona since 1996, and the first candidate to win nationally without Ohio since 1960 and without Florida since 1992.  Every state won by Biden was won by more votes than Hillary Clinton won each state.  Since he received at least 15 million more votes than her, it is not too surprising a result.

Almost all counties previously considered reliable indicators of eventual success in presidential elections voted for Trump instead of Biden, meaning that they did not continue their streaks as bellwether counties.  The experts tried to dismiss this fact by claiming that it was due to increasing political polarization and an urban-rural divide.  However, Trump’s lead in rural areas dropped from 28% over Clinton to only 15% over Biden.

This marked the first election in history in which Maine and Nebraska both split their electoral votes. Ranked-choice tabulation was ultimately not used in Maine as Biden earned a majority statewide and in the 1st district, while Trump earned a majority in the 2nd district. Biden narrowly flipped Kennebec County (home to the state capital, Augusta) four years after Clinton lost it; his victory was by fewer than 200 votes. All other counties favored the same party they did in 2016.  Biden was even competitive with Trump among Maine's gun owners, a traditionally Republican interest group, capturing 42% of their vote to Trump's 57%.  Maine was one of sixteen states where President Trump received less percentage of the vote than he did in the 2016 election.  This is the first time since 2004 that Maine's 2nd congressional district backed the candidate who lost the electoral college and overall presidential race.

Kalawao County, Hawaii had the highest percentage for the Democratic share of the vote at 95.8%.  Washington, D.C. was in second place with 92.15%.  As of 2019, Kalawao County had a population of 86 people.  It has been declining in every census, with the exception of 2000 when it saw a slight increase.  In the 1900 census it had a population of 1,177.  Oglala Lakota County, South Dakota was in 4th place with 88.41%.  It is one of five South Dakota counties entirely on an Indian reservation.  Four of the top 5 counties for the Republican share of the vote were in Texas: Roberts County at 96.18%, Borden County at 95.43%, King County and 94.97%, and Glasscock County at 93.57%.

Here is a comparison of the exit polls between the 2016 and 2020 elections.  Trump gained 41% among those who considered the economy the most important issue; 13% among LGBT; 12% with black 30-44; 10% with family incomes between $100,000 and $200,000; 7% among others by age and race; 6% with black men; 6% from other races when combined with gender; 6% for ages 30-39; 6% with white 18-29; 6% with Latino 30-44; 6% among non-white with no college degree; 5% with Asians; 5% with black women; 5% among those with no religious affiliation; 5% among non-white based on education by race, ethnicity, and sex; and 5% with family incomes under $30,000.

Trump lost 8% with family incomes between $50,000 and $100,000; 8% among first time voters; 7% with moderates; 6% with independents; 6% with ages 40-49; 6% with veterans; 5% with Catholics; 5% with white evangelical or born-again Christian; 5% among voters with some college education; and 5% with rural voters.

Biden gained 13% with independents; 12% with moderates; 11% with other religion; 11% with family incomes between $50,000 and $100,000; 10% with veterans; 9% among white men with college degrees; 8% with white evangelical or born-again Christian; 8% with ages 40-49; 8% with first time voters; 8% among voters with some college education; 8% among rural voters; 7% with married men; 7% with white men; 7% with Catholics; 6% with unmarried men; 6% among white college graduates; 5% with liberals; 5% with Democrats; 5% for Jewish; 5% with ages 18-24; 5% among white men without college degrees; 5% with family incomes between $30,000 and $50,000; 5% with union households; and 5% with suburban voters.

Biden lost 35% among those who considered the economy the most important issue; 14% among LGBT; 11% among blacks age 18-29; and 6% with family incomes between $100,000 and $200,000.

The exit polls used different age groups.  Clinton won Latinos 65 and older by 73-25 and Biden won Latinos 60 and older by 58-40.  Although the ages don't match, that's about a 15% gain for Trump and a 15% drop for the Democrats.  The 2020 exit polls included a question about the family’s financial situation: Biden won overwhelmingly among those who were worse than 4 years ago and those who were about the same, and Trump won overwhelmingly among those who said they were better off than four years ago.

There were definitely some statistical anomalies in this election, the way we confirm and count ballots is very messy, and it was wrong of the Supreme Court to refuse to take up a case on whether governors, election officials, and state courts can override election law set by the state legislatures (as required by the Constitution).  There is some speculation that the justices were afraid of triggering even more rioting and looting after the 2020 George Floyd protests.  However, here are a few reasons why Joe Biden might have actually won the national popular vote: 1) Trump’s victories in Alaska, Kansas, Texas, and Utah were lower than a typical Republican usually receives.  2) Voter registration numbers in Arizona showed Democrats adding more new voters than Republicans did. 3) Campus Reform editor-in-chief Lawrence B. Jones said Georgia was tight. 4) The 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election was decided by less than 55,000 votes, out of almost 4 million cast. 5) There is speculation that the vote counting machines were rigged.  An easy test would be to pick a few precincts or counties and hand count all of the ballots and then compare that to the official result as stated by the computer.  If that has been tried, I am not aware of it. 6) The Democrats held onto the majority in the House and flipped 3 seats, and they flipped 3 seats in the Senate.  7) Democrats led the national popular vote in the House of Representatives by 3.1%.