2016 Election Results

I think the election results have been finalized now. Clinton received 48.19% of the popular vote compared to 46.09% for Trump.  Clinton received 70,876 fewer votes than Obama did in 2012.  She lost Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by a combined total of 77,744 votes.  Trump had 939,273 more votes than Bush in 2004.  In total there were 136,645,382 votes, which is the highest amount ever.  Clinton’s percentage is the lowest for a Democrat since 1992 when her husband Bill only got 43.01%.  Clinton’s popular vote total is the third highest for a Democrat.  Trump’s popular vote total is the highest ever for a Republican.  His percentage is the lowest for a Republican since 2008 when McCain only got 45.65% of the popular vote.  Candidates on the right received a majority of the votes.  Trump, Johnson, McMullin, and Castle accounted for 50.05% of the popular vote; while Clinton, Stein, Sanders, and La Riva accounted for 49.36% of the total.

The electoral vote should have been 306-232, but due to several faithless electors the final result was 304-227, with seven votes going to other candidates.  There were more faithless electors in 2016 than the previous 12 elections combined!  Although faithless electors have never changed the outcome of an election, I think we need an amendment to guarantee that it never happens.  We can either require electors to support the states, or ban electors and make the vote automatic.  Trump won 30 states which is the highest amount since Bush won 31 states in the 2004 election.  Trump received 304 elector votes which is the best result by a Republican since the 1988 election when George H.W. Bush had 426 votes.  The 115th United States Congress officially certified the results on January 6, 2017.

Trump will be the fifth person to become president despite losing the nationwide popular vote.  He will be the first president without any prior military or political experience in public service, while Clinton was the first woman to be the presidential nominee of a major American party and the first woman to win the popular vote.

Collectively, third-party and independent candidates earned 5.72% of the popular vote, the highest since 1996 when they accounted for 10.05% of the total vote.  Gary Johnson received 4,488,925 votes or 3.29% of the total, which is a new record for the Libertarian Party.  Jill Stein received 1,448,908 votes or 1.06%.  This is the best result for the Green Party since the 2000 election when Ralph Nader received 2,882,955 votes or 2.74%.  Evan McMullin had 709,456 votes or 0.52%.  This is the best result for an Independent candidate since 2008 when Ralph Nader had 739,034 votes or 0.56%.  Darrell Castle received 201,745 votes which is the most ever for the Constitution Party.  This amounts to 0.15% of the total vote which ties Chuck Baldwin in the 2008 election, but trails the 1996 result when it was known as U.S. Taxpayers' Party and Howard Phillips received 0.19%.
Utah was the best state for third party and independent candidates where they accounted for 27% of the vote.  The worst state for alternative candidates was Mississippi where they only accounted for 1.95% of the vote.  In eight states they accounted for over 10% of the vote.  In 12 states a third party or independent candidate received a higher percentage of the vote than the gap between Clinton and Trump.

Donald Trump’s best state was West Virginia with 68.63% and his worst state was Hawaii with 29.44%.  Hillary Clinton’s best state was California with 61.73% and her worst state was Wyoming with 21.63%.  Gary Johnson’s best state was New Mexico with 9.34% and his worst state was Mississippi with 1.19%.  Evan McMullin’s best state was Utah with 21.54% and his worst state was North Carolina with 0%.  Jill Stein’s best state was Hawaii with 2.91% and her worst state was North Carolina with 0.25%.  Darrell Castle’s best state was Alaska with 1.21% and his worst state was North Carolina with 0%.

Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1%.  The most accurate aggregate poll was the TPM Polltracker which predicted that she would win by 1.9%.  The following polls released in November came close to the actual result: UPI/CVoter November 1–7 at 2.5%, McClatchy/Marist November 1–3 at 2%, Google Consumer Surveys November 1–7 at 2%, Rasmussen Reports November 2–6 at 2%, Fox News November 1–3 at 2%, and Gravis Marketing/Breitbart News November 1–2 at 2%.

Clinton won the popular vote by 2.86 million.  California was the only state where her margin was even higher at 4.27 million.  Her lead in Los Angeles County was 1.69 million.

Clinton received 34.36% of the vote in Alabama, which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1972 election when George McGovern only received 25.54% of the vote.

Trump received 51.28% of the vote in Alaska, which is the lowest amount for a Republican since the 1996 election when Bob Dole received 50.80% of the vote.

Clinton received 45.13% of the vote in Arizona, which is the highest amount for a Democrat since the 1996 election when her husband Bill received 46.52% of the vote.

In Arkansas, Trump received 60.57% of the vote which ties Romney’s total in 2012 and is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1972 election when Richard Nixon received 68.82% of the vote.  Clinton received 33.65% of the vote which is the lowest for a Democrat since the 1972 election when George McGovern only received 30.71% of the vote.

In California, Clinton received 61.73% of the vote which is the highest for a Democrat since the 1936 election when Franklin D. Roosevelt received 66.95% of the vote.  Trump received 31.62% of the vote which is the lowest for a Republican since the 1912 election when William H. Taft only received 0.58% of the vote.

Trump received 43.25% of the vote in Colorado, which is the lowest for a Republican since the 1992 election when George H.W. Bush only received 35.87% of the vote.

Clinton received 53.35% of the vote in Delaware which ties John Kerry in 2004 as the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1996 election when her husband Bill received 51.80% of the vote.

Trump received 4.07% of the vote in the District of Columbia, which is the lowest amount ever for a Republican.  It held its first vote in the 1964 election with passage of the Twenty-third Amendment.

Trump received 51.05% of the vote in Georgia, which is the lowest amount for a Republican since the 1996 election when Bob Dole received 47.01% of the vote.

In Idaho, Clinton received 27.49% of the vote which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1984 election when Walter Mondale received 26.39%.  Trump received 59.26% of the vote which is the lowest for a Republican since the 1996 election when Bob Dole received 52.18% of the vote.

Clinton received 37.77% of the vote in Indiana, which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1992 election when her husband Bill received 36.79% of the vote.

In Iowa, Clinton received 41.74% of the vote which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1980 election when Jimmy Carter received 38.60% of the vote.  Trump received 51.15% of the vote which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1984 election when Ronald Reagan received 53.27% of the vote.

Clinton received 36.05% of the vote in Kansas, which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1992 election when her husband Bill received 33.74% of the vote.

In Kentucky, Clinton received 32.68% of the vote which is the lowest amount ever for a Democrat.  Kentucky became a state in 1792, but I don’t think it had a popular vote until 1824.  Trump received 62.52% of the vote which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1972 election when Richard Nixon received 63.37% of the vote.

Clinton received 38.45% of the vote in Louisiana, which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1984 election when Walter Mondale received 38.18% of the vote.

Clinton received 46.35% of the vote in Maine, which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1992 election when her husband Bill received 38.77% of the vote.

Trump received 33.91% of the vote in Maryland, which is the lowest amount for a Republican since the 1912 election when William H. Taft received 23.69% of the vote.

In Massachusetts, Clinton received 59.05% of the vote which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1992 election when her husband Bill received 47.54% of the vote.  Trump received 32.29% of the vote which is the lowest amount for a Republican since the 1996 election when Bob Dole received 28.09% of the vote.

Clinton received 47.27% of the vote in Michigan, which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1992 election when her husband Bill received 43.77% of the vote.

Clinton received 46.44% of the vote in Minnesota, which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1992 election when her husband Bill received 43.48% of the vote.

In Missouri, Clinton received 38.14% of the vote which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1972 election when George McGovern received 37.71%.  Trump received 56.77% of the vote which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1984 election when Ronald Reagan received 60.02% of the vote.

Trump received 40.04% of the vote in New Mexico, which is the lowest amount for a Republican since the 1992 election when George H.W. Bush received 37.34% of the vote.

In North Dakota, Clinton received 27.23% of the vote which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1980 election when Jimmy Carter received 26.26% of the vote.  Trump received 62.96% of the vote which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1984 election when Ronald Reagan received 64.84% of the vote.

In Ohio, Clinton received 43.56% of the vote which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1992 election when her husband Bill received 40.18% of the vote.  Trump received 51.69% of the vote which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1988 election when George H.W. Bush received 55% of the vote.

Clinton received 28.93% of the vote in Oklahoma, which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1972 election when George McGovern received 24% of the vote.

Trump received 39.09% of the vote in Oregon, which is the lowest amount for a Republican since the 1996 election when Bob Dole received 39.06% of the vote.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton received 47.85% of the vote which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1992 election when her husband Bill received 45.15% of the vote.  Trump received 48.58% of the vote which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1988 election when George H.W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote.

In Rhode Island, Clinton received 54.41% of the vote which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1992 election when her husband Bill received 47.04% of the vote.  Trump received 38.9% of the vote which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1988 election when George H.W. Bush received 43.93% of the vote.

Clinton received 40.67% of the vote in South Carolina, which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1992 election when her husband Bill received 39.88% of the vote.

In South Dakota, Clinton received 31.74% of the vote which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1980 election when Jimmy Carter received 31.69% of the vote.  Trump received 61.53% of the vote which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1984 election when Ronald Reagan received 63% of the vote.

In Tennessee, Clinton received 34.72% of the vote which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1972 election when George McGovern received 29.75% of the vote.  Trump received 60.72% of the vote which is the highest amount for a Republican since the 1972 election when Richard Nixon received 67.7% of the vote.

Trump received 52.23% of the vote in Texas, which is the lowest amount for a Republican since the 1996 election when Bob Dole received 48.76% of the vote.

Trump received 45.54% of the vote in Utah, which is the lowest amount for a Republican since the 1992 election when George H.W. Bush received 43.36% of the vote.

Trump received 29.76% of the vote in Vermont, which is the lowest amount ever for a Republican.  The Republican Party ran its first candidate in 1856 and in 1864 Abraham Lincoln ran under the National Union party.

Trump received 44.43% of the vote in Virginia, which is the lowest amount for a Republican since the 1968 election when Richard Nixon received 43.36% of the vote.

Trump received 38.07% of the vote in Washington, which is the lowest for a Republican since the 1996 election when Bob Dole received 37.3% of the vote.

In West Virginia, Clinton received 26.48% of the vote which is the lowest amount ever for a Democrat.  West Virginia became a state in 1861.  Trump received 68.63% of the vote which is the highest amount ever for a Republican.

Clinton received 46.45% of the vote in Wisconsin, which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1992 election when her husband Bill received 41.13% of the vote.

Clinton received 21.63% of the vote in Wyoming, which is the lowest amount for a Democrat since the 1924 election when John W. Davis received 16.11% of the vote.

A shooting at a polling place in Azusa, California left two people dead, including the perpetrator, and two others critically injured. The shooting resulted in the closure of polls. 

At 70 years of age, Trump became the oldest person ever to be elected to a first term as president, surpassing Ronald Reagan, who was 69 years old upon winning the 1980 election.  Along with Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, Trump was born in 1946; this is the first time a single birth year has produced three presidents. (1946 was a year of unusually numerous births, marking the first year of the post–World War II baby boom.) Trump will become the fifth president to be born in the state of New York, the second president born in New York City, and the third president to win an election despite losing his home state.

FiveThirtyEight's model pointed out the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split widening in final weeks, based on Trump's improvement in swing states like Florida or Pennsylvania due to demographics targeted by Trump's campaign living in big numbers there, in addition to Clinton's poor performance in several of those swing states in comparison with Obama's performance in 2012, as well as having a big number of her potential voters in very populated states traditionally 'blue' but also in some very populated states traditionally 'red' like Texas which were projected safe for Trump.

Early exit polls favored Clinton. However, as polls closed and the results came in throughout the night, those exit polls and forecasts proved inaccurate as the Republican candidate performed surprisingly well in all battleground states.

Statistician Nate Silver performed a regression analysis which demonstrated that the alleged discrepancy between paper ballots and electronic voting machines "completely disappears once you control for race and education level".  On November 25, 2016, the Obama administration said the results from November 8, “accurately reflect the will of the American people.”  The following day, the White House released another statement saying, “the federal government did not observe any increased level of malicious cyber activity aimed at disrupting our electoral process on Election Day.”

The recounts in Wisconsin and Nevada were completed on schedule, resulting in only minor changes to vote tallies.  While the incomplete Michigan recount did identify some instances of improper ballot handling and possible voter fraud in some Detroit precincts, no evidence of widespread hacking was found, and the overall outcome of the election remained unchanged by the recount efforts.

Obama was aware of Russian hackers previously targeting the State Department, White House and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the New York Times reported, but he chose not to publicly call out Russians or issue sanctions out of "fear of escalating a cyberwar, and concern that the United States needed Russia’s cooperation in negotiations over Syria."

On December 9, the Central Intelligence Agency issued an assessment to lawmakers in the US Senate, stating that a Russian entity hacked the DNC and John Podesta's emails to assist Donald Trump. The Federal Bureau of Investigation agreed.  President Barack Obama ordered a "full enquiry" into such possible intervention.  On December 13, the New York Times revealed that in November 2015 the D.N.C. technology director Andrew Brown noticed that the campaign data of Hillary Clinton had been hacked by the campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

President-elect Trump originally mocked the report of Russian hacking as fabricated, and Wikileaks denied any involvement of Russian authorities.  But a few days later, Trump said he could be convinced of the Russian hacking "if there is a unified presentation of evidence from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies."

Trump's crucial victories in the Midwest were aided in large part by his strong margins among Northern whites without college degrees; while Obama (in 2012) and Kerry (in 2004) lost those voters by a margin of 10 points, Clinton lost them by a margin of 20 points.  The election also represented the first time that Republicans performed better among lower-income whites than among affluent white voters.  Additionally, Trump nearly doubled his support from Muslims compared to 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney.

Trump performed better than Romney and McCain with blacks, protestants, Catholics, other religions, people who attend religious service only a few times per year, white evangelical or born-again Christians, 25–29 year olds, 50–64 year olds, High school or less, Some college education, Under $30,000, and Rural areas.

Maine split its electoral votes for the first time since 1828.  The 1872 presidential election also saw multiple electors vote for a different candidate than that pledged, due to the death of Liberal Republican candidate Horace Greeley, after the popular vote, yet before the meeting of the Electoral College. Greeley still garnered three posthumous electoral votes which were subsequently dismissed by Congress.